Sorare MLB GW21 Breakdown | The Legend of Elly
Welcome to the Sorare MLB Game Week 21 Breakdown!
My goal for these slate breakdowns is to create an all-in-one place for users to get an overview of each Game Week and use that information to pinpoint marketplace inefficiencies and construct a winning team.
I will be focusing on the Limited tier cards when referencing market prices as this is where the majority of Sorare users will be playing, and where there is the most liquid market.
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Let’s dive in!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
It was a tight race at the top of GW20’s Starting Pitcher leaderboard, but Kevin Gausman took the crown with a dominant 13-strikeout performance against the Astros.
I wrote up Gausman last week as a great play against the Stros’, whose right-handed heavy lineup matched up well with Gausman’s skill-set.
The other player I want to note here is Jon Gray, who has given up just four runs over his last 43 innings pitched. His next start should come against the Angels in GW22.
Rays’ closer Jason Adam outscored every starting pitcher and led the way for the relievers.
He tallied up three appearances versus the Red Sox and Twins, and earned the save in two of them.
However, Pete Fairbanks is eligible to return from the IL on Monday which would shift Adam out of the closer role. This could be an opportunity to sell high.
The hitter leaderboard looked a little funky this week with Jace Peterson at the top, and rookies Joey Wiemer and Ryan Noda cracking a top-5 spot.
Jose Ramirez was boosted to the top with a three-homer game last night which knocked Corbin Carroll out of the top-5.
I’ll also note that Gary Sanchez has been on fire just in time for the Padres to head to Coors to face a couple of bad lefties.
📋 Roster Movements
In:
Elly De La Cruz - Called up from AAA to Reds Tuesday, homered and tripled Wed.
Willy Adames - Activated off 7-day IL after being struck by foul ball
Trent Grisham - Returned to Padres Wednesday after missing two games
Out:
Jacob deGrom - Out for the season, will undergo Tommy John surgery
Aaron Judge - Placed on 10-day IL with big toe strain
Byron Buxton - Placed on 10-day IL with left rib contusion
Xander Bogaerts - Day to day with a balky wrist, has sat four games
Pete Alonso - Day-to-day after being hit on the hand with pitch
Brandon Lowe - Has herniated disk, will be out for a while
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
All teams play three games!
⚾️ Pitching Primer
Hunter Greene at STL
Greene has looked sharp over his last three starts, totaling 29 strikeouts over 19 innings while surrendering only 5 runs.
Greene is fourth in strikeout rate (33%), ninth in xFIP (3.56), and will face St. Louis who are about league average in most offensive metrics.
Busch Stadium is a much better place to pitch than Great American and I prefer to pick on the Cardinals with righties over lefties.
Greene’s Limited card can be scooped up for under $17 in the Sorare Marketplace.
Limited Price: ~$17
Freddy Peralta vs OAK
Freddy draws the always-enticing Oakland matchup this week.
The A’s decided to put up some runs against the Pirates this past week, but this team still has the 7th-highest strikeout rate (24.4%), 4th-worst ISO (.135), and the 4th-worst wOBA (.295).
The one downside to Peralta is that he hasn’t been the same dominant strikeout pitcher that he once was.
On the season he is 35th in strikeout rate (24.5%) and 40th in xFIP (4.15).
His Limited price is around $7 and he is currently listed as an undervalue per the SoRanks.
Limited Price: ~$7
Other Starters Include:
~$30 Zac Gallen at DET
~$14 Mitch Keller vs. NYM
~$39 Shane McClanahan vs. TEX
~$18 Joe Ryan at TOR
~$36 Gerrit Cole vs BOS
~$12 Dylan Cease vs. MIA
~$17 Luis Castillo at LAA
~$177 Shohei Ohtani vs. SEA
~$8 Michael Kopech vs. MIA
~$19 Nathan Eovaldi at TBR
~$28 Kevin Gausman vs. MIN
📞 Call To The Bullpen
Picking bullpen players is trickier on the weekend Game Weeks where all teams typically play three games.
Last weekend was an anomaly with the Rays and Red Sox both playing four games, but this week is back to normal.
Games I think can stay competitive in GW21:
TEX/TBR, MIN/TOR, SEA/LAA
~$7 Will Smith
~$5 Jason Adam (Pete Fairbanks eligible to come off IL Monday)
~$7 Jhoan Duran
~$12 Jordan Romano
~$4 Paul Sewald
~$3 Andres Munoz
~$9 Carlos Estevez
💰 Stacks
I want to let readers know that I will be tweaking my process when picking stacks for the Monday-Thursday Game Weeks.
I have been putting too much emphasis on the teams playing four games, and while this is important, it has caused me to overlook several offenses that are in fantastic spots despite playing just three games.
Also, it has caused me to overvalue teams with four games (Like the weak offense of the Cubs last week), just because they draw mediocre pitching relative to the other four-game teams.
Padres
I fully expect San Diego to have no problem handing Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland, and Dinelson Lamet this weekend in Colorado.
Although Xander Bogaerts is now day-to-day with a balky wrist, the return of Manny Machado and the addition of Gary Sanchez make this a strong team against left-handed pitchers.
That being said I still wouldn’t exclude Juan Soto or Jake Cronenworth from a Padres stack.
~$122 Fernando Tatis Jr.
~$33 Manny Machado
~$70 Juan Soto
~$11 Xander Bogaerts
~$5 Gary Sanchez
Diamondbacks
Arizona will travel to Comerica park for a matchup against the extremely weak Tigers pitching staff.
They are scheduled to face Michael Lorenzen, Matt Boyd, and Joey Wentz.
Here are some stats from these three:
Lorenzen - 6.92 K/9 - 2.03 BB/9 - 1.01 HR/9 - 4.05 xFIP
Boyd - 8.94 K/9 - 3.71 BB/9 - 1.19 HR/9 - 4.66 xFIP
Wentz - 7.66 K/9 - 3.83 BB/9 - 1.92 HR/9 - 4.97 xFIP
Not great.
Corbin Carroll has been on fire of late and I love the DBacks righties in this one.
~$15 Ketel Marte
~$70 Corbin Carroll
~$3 Emmanuel Rivera
~$15 Christian Walker
~$2 Evan Longoria
Other Stacks To Consider:
Orioles, Athletics, Cubs, Braves
Value Options (Under $20):
Middle Infielder:
~$17 Jonathan India, ~$9 Gary Sanchez, ~$11 Brandon Drury, ~$17 Sean Murphy, ~$19 Max Muncy, ~$17 Gio Urshela
Corner Infielder:
~$17 J.D. Martinez, ~$15 Ryan McMahon, ~$17 Jorge Soler, ~$18 Luis Arraez, ~$16 Ketel Marte, ~$8 Marcell Ozuna, ~$9 Ryan Noda
Outfielder:
~$19 Eloy Jimenez, ~$10 Michael Conforto, ~$6 Eddie Rosario, ~$15 Riley Greene, ~$17 Starling Marte, ~$7 Austin Hays
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 21.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
I will be releasing these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards.
Thanks for reading!