Sorare MLB GW29 Breakdown | Yelich Takes the Crown
Welcome to the Sorare MLB Game Week 29 Breakdown!
My goal for these slate breakdowns is to create an all-in-one place for users to get an overview of each Game Week and use that information to pinpoint marketplace inefficiencies and construct a winning team.
I will be focusing on the Limited tier cards when referencing market prices as this is where the majority of Sorare users will be playing, and where there is the most liquid market.
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Let’s dive in!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
Pablo Lopez was lights out agains the Royals this week, throwing a four-hit complete-game shutout with 12 strikeouts.
It was one of the highest scores of the season, even surpassing Domingo German’s perfect game score of 50 Sorare points from two Game Weeks ago.
He’s put up some great numbers this season and his Limited Price still hovers around $16.
The bullpen leaderboard this week contained two relievers (Payamps, Ferguson) and three closers.
The Cubs/Brewers series was tightly contested throughout their four game series. Three of the games had a one-run differential and the fourth game had a two-run differential.
This allowed Payamps to earn three appearances and win the Bullpen Triple Crown (I just made that up). He earned one win, one save, and one hold.
Christian Yelich took the crown for the first time this season with three stolen bases, two walks, one homer, and eight total hits in GW28.
Lindor came out of nowhere last night with a 5-5 game that included one homer, two triples, and two singles.
I’m not a baseball statistician but I would guess that hasn’t happened too many times.
📋 Roster Movements
In:
Carlos Rodon - Will make first start as a Yankee today vs. Cubs
Out:
Mike Trout - Expected to miss 4-8 weeks with left hamate fracture
Shohei Ohtani - Left his start on Tuesday with a blister, day to day
Anthony Rendon - Day to day after fouling pitch off his knee
Corbin Carroll - Day to day after right shoulder discomfort, initial tests were positive
Clayton Kershaw - Placed on 15-day IL Monday with left shoulder soreness
Dustin May - Will undergo surgery to repair his flexor tendon, out for the season
Adam Wainwright - Expected to hit the 15-day IL with right shoulder irritation
Michael Wacha - Placed on the 15-day IL with right shoulder inflammation
Rowdy Tellez - Placed on the 10-day IL with right forearm inflammation
Jazz Chisholm - Placed on 10-day IL with left oblique strain
Jose Altuve - Placed on the 10-day IL with left oblique discomfort
Bryce Miller - Placed on 15-day IL with right middle finger blister
Garrett Whitlock - Placed on 15-day IL Tuesday with right elbow tightness
Shane McClanahan - Placed on the 15-day IL with mid back tightness
Michael Kopech - Placed on the 15-day IL with right shoulder inflammation
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
Two Games:
Dodgers, Angels
Three Games:
Everyone else!
⚾️ Pitching Primer
Kevin Gausman at DET
Gausman is once again my favorite pitcher going this weekend, this time in a favorable road matchup versus Detroit.
Gausman’s numbers this year have been phenomenal. He currently sports the second-highest strikeout rate (32.7%) and the lowest xFIP (2.82). He also ranks 10th in HR/9 (0.74) and 15th in walk rate (6.1%).
The Tigers remain a punching bag, ranking bottom-ten in strikeout rate (23.7%), bottom five in ISO (.137), and bottom three in wOBA (.294).
The Tigers have put up more runs as of late but they did just have that Coors series over the weekend.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gausman have the best outing amongst the starters going this week.
Limited Price: ~$24
Logan Webb vs COL
My Off Bas3 cohost Nick made some excellent points on Webb in this week’s episode which you can find here.
I highlighted Webb here last week in a home-matchup against the strikeout-happy Mariners, and Webb delivered 11 strikeouts through nine innings of work.
This week he draws another great matchup, albeit a slightly less favorable strikeout one, but the Rockies strikeout 24.1% of the time and rank bottom-ten in both ISO (.146) and wOBA (.313).
Also this game being in San Fransisco makes this one of the best pitchers parks instead of the #1 hitters park.
Limited Price: ~$16
Other Starters to Consider:
~$19 Aaron Nola at MIA
~$13 Zack Wheeler at MIA
~$27 Zac Gallen vs PIT
~$147 Spencer Strider at TBR
~$12 James Paxton vs OAK
~$47 Andrew Abbott at MIL
~$28 Framber Valdez vs SEA
~$15 Joe Ryan vs BAL
~$33 Gerrit Cole at CHC
~$14 Blake Snell vs NYM
📞 Call To The Bullpen
My #1 rule for this Game Week is to avoid bullpen arms for the Angels and Dodgers.
Having just two games this will drastically cap the upside of everyone.
Series’ I think can stay close in GW29:
Rays/Braves, Astros/Mariners, Brewers/Reds, Orioles/Twins
Closer Options:
~$5 Pete Fairbanks
~$12 Raisel Iglesias
~$9 Ryan Pressly
~$5 Andres Munoz
~$15 Devin Williams
~$16 Alexis Diaz
~$25 Felix Bautista
~$9 Jhoan Duran
💰 Stacks
Blue Jays
I believe this is the first time I’ve highlighted the Jays this season, which feels odd because of how dominant they were last year.
It’s fair to say Toronto has underwhelmed from a power standpoint this season. They rank 10th in wOBA (.325), 7th in wRC+ (107), but just 20th in ISO (.157).
Their “Big Three” Springer, Bichette, and Guerrero have 12,15, and 13 homers, respectively. None of them have cracked the top 30 and its almost the all-star break.
That being said, this looks like an awesome spot at Comerica Park against the Tigers.
Toronto will not face all-star Michael Lorenzen or Eduardo Rodriguez, and instead draw Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Tyler Alexander.
Facing two lefties here, I can see the top of this Blue Jays order doing some damage this weekend.
~$13 George Springer
~$64 Bo Bichette
~$65 Vladimir Guererro Jr.
~$8 Matt Chapman
~$6 Whit Merrifield
Rangers
The Rangers will leave Boston and head to the Nation’s Capital this weekend to face Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, and Patrick Corbin.
I talk about it often on here, but Texas is ranked 5th in ISO (.185), 2nd in wOBA (.346), and 3rd in wRC+ (122).
Brace yourself, but here are the stats for these three Nats starters:
Williams: 16.9% K%, 1.91 HR/9, 4.99 xFIP
Irvin: 16.8% K%, 1.01 HR/9, 5.62 xFIP
Corbin: 14.8%, 1.50 HR/9, 4.62 xFIP
Not great.
~$36 Marcus Semien
~$52 Corey Seager
~$37 Adolis Garcia
~$13 Nate Lowe
~$16 Ezequiel Duran
Other Stacks to Consider:
Reds, Brewers, Athletics, Red Sox, Giants
Value Options:
I’m going to mixing up the value section moving forward with this new graphic that my guy Nick put together this week.
He combined his “short-term stack value” model with his “long-term value” model to produce a list of players that make for solid cheap pickups to round out your squad.
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 29.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
I release these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards.
Thanks for reading!