Sorare MLB GW30 Breakdown | Halfway There
The All Star break gave me some time to think about the newsletter and I’ve decided I want to add a custom intro each week right here in this section.
I’ve always loved the All Star break and all the festivities that go along with it.
I wasn’t planning to, but I ended up watching the entire recording of the Celebrity All Star game on Youtube Monday morning.
There’s something about watching Donovan Mitchell, Mark Rober, Jojo Siwa and others duke it out on the baseball diamond.
The home run derby is still always my favorite event and it was awesome to see Vladdy and his dad become the first father-son duo to win.
It was nice having a week break from writing the Sorare Breakdown, but it feels great to be back and ready for the second half!
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Let’s dive in!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
Logan Webb finished on top in GW30 by throwing a complete-game shutout with 10 strikeouts versus the Rockies.
Aaron Civale took advantage of his matchup against Kansas City with a seven-inning, nine-strikeout performance.
These performances prove the importance of matchup because Webb ranks outside the top-50 in K%, and Civale ranks outside the top-100.
Devin Williams unsurprisingly finished at the top of the RP leaderboard with two saves over the Reds.
He’ll have a chance to repeat that performance with another three game series against the Reds this weekend, and he should be fully rested coming off the All-Star break.
Also my guy Nick Pivetta made the cut even though he kinda cheated because he started the game against the A’s and had nine strikeouts.
Joey Meneses and Manny Machado shared the crown this week with 72 Sorare points.
I still think Meneses is a sell-high with mediocre numbers across the board (.120 ISO, .320 wOBA, 98 wRC+).
Also if you like hot streaks, look no further than the game log of Mr. Jarren Duran.
📋 Roster Movements
In:
Chris Taylor - Should return to the Dodgers lineup today vs the Mets
Zach Neto - Should return to Angels today from his left oblique injury
Bryce Miller - Will rejoin the Mariners rotation starting today
Out:
Luis Robert - Day to day after experiencing right calf tightness during home run derby
Jordan Romano - Removed from his start during All Star game with back tightness
Drew Rasmussen - Now out the rest of the year and into next year following surgery
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
Four Games:
Padres, Phillies
Three Games:
Everyone else!
⚾️ Pitching Primer
George Kirby/Luis Castillo/Logan Gilbert vs DET
Seattle players won’t have to make any travel plans following the All Star break for this enticing matchup at home versus the Tigers.
Both Kirby and Castillo made the AL All Star squad while Gilbert was one of the more obvious snubs, in my humble opinion. Although Joe Ryan would like a word.
Detroit has been a fantastic matchup for opposing pitchers all season. They currently rank 10th-highest in strikeout rate (23.9%), third-worst in ISO (.136), and third-worst in wOBA (.294).
This is one of the best pitchers parks (although Vladdy’s recent home run derby victory may have showed you otherwise) and I think we see a ceiling game from one or two of these Mariners pitchers this week.
Limited Prices: Kirby ~$14, Castillo ~$19, Gilbert ~$10
Spencer Strider/Charlie Morton vs CHW
We know Strider is awesome and can be played at RP in Sorare making him even more awesome, but I’ll throw old man Morton in here as well.
The White Sox offense might seem a little intimidating here, but as mentioned in the Roster Movement section, their lone All Star Luis Robert is day to day after tweaking his calf in the home run derby.
Chicago strikes out at the 11th-highest clip (23.5%), is about league-average in ISO (.154), and somewhat surprisingly has the fourth-worst wOBA (.298).
Strider ranks first in the league in K% at 38.9%. This is higher than second-place Kevin Gausman by 6.3%(!). Morton currently sports a 26.1% which is the 19th-best amongst qualified pitchers.
Limited Prices: Strider ~$156, Morton ~$8
Other Starters Include:
~$273 Shohei Ohtani vs HOU
~$11 Pablo Lopez at OAK
~$15 Joe Ryan at OAK
~$26 Gerrit Cole at COL
~$14 Zack Wheeler vs SDP
~$14 Blake Snell at PHI
~$15 Tyler Glasnow at KCR
~$4 Alex Cobb at PIT
📞 Call To The Bullpen
With the Padres and Phillies each playing four games, we can gain an edge by prioritizing their bullpens in GW30.
Padres:
~$3 Nick Martinez
~$1Luis Garcia
~$ 1Tim Hill
~$ 1Tom Cosgrove
~$16 Josh Hader
Phillies:
~$1 Gregory Soto
~$1 Matt Strahm
~$1 Andrew Vasquez
~$6 Craig Kimbrel
Other Closer Options Include:
~$6 David Bednar
~$30 Felix Bautista
~$17 Alexis Diaz
~$13 Devin Williams
~$9 Ryan Pressly
💰 Stacks
Padres/Phillies
We have a unique situation this week where the Padres and Phillies will be playing a double-header on Saturday to make up for a recent weather postponement.
I prefer the San Diego side, as Philly will have to face Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the first two games, and the Padres will get Zack Wheeler but not Aaron Nola.
Having an extra game on this slate is a huge boost to both offenses and a stack of either teams makes a lot of sense.
Padres:
~$126 Fernando Tatis Jr.
~$62 Juan Soto
~$41 Manny Machado
~$14 Xander Bogaerts
~$5 Jake Cronenworth
Phillies:
~$20 Kyle Schwarber
~$42 Trea Turner
~$16 Nick Castellanos
~$8 Alec Bohm
~$11 JT Realmuto
Yankees
New York will head to the mountains to face Austin Gomber, Chase Anderson, and Connor Seabold of the Rockies.
Although still missing Aaron Judge, this Yanks lineup still has some power all throughout the order and they draw the best possible hitting conditions of the week.
The Yankees rank 6th in ISO (.179), 24th in wOBA (.308), and 21st in wRC+ (96). While these metrics don’t quite pop off the page, we still see this team has some power and we know Stanton likes to hit in Coors.
~$18 Anthony Volpe
~$11 Gleyber Torres
~$11 Giancarlo Stanton
~$8 Anthony Rizzo
~$8 Harrison Bader
Other Stacks to Consider
Red Sox, Reds, Brewers, Braves, Twins
Value Options:
If you missed last week’s newsletter, I introduced Value+ created by Nick Mitchell.
This list offers some players who make sense as players to pick up for the upcoming GW based on matchup and price.
All the players here play on teams that I have listed in the stacks section.
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 30.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
I release these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards.
Thanks for reading!