Sorare MLB GW40 Breakdown | Greene Goes Jay Hunting
The slate has been flipped on its head.
I apologize to those who watched Off Bas3 yesterday, which was recorded before a couple of key news pieces dropped.
Shortly after recording, Tim Anderson got his suspension reduced to five games, but he will be starting that suspension today.
He was listed as one of the top buy-lows and the White Sox are projected as the top stack this weekend as they head to Colorado.
I think Chicago can deliver without him, but it’s still a significant change.
Also the Tigers/Guardians game was postponed last night, which means a doubleheader today, which means each team will be playing four games in this game week.
Detroit and Cleveland stacks now get a big boost, and Detroit and Cleveland relievers get an even bigger boost.
Sometimes small changes can alter the foundation of an entire slate.
Let’s just hope Hunter Greene’s return to the mound on Sunday doesn’t get pushed off GW40.
Let’s dive in!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
Mad Max was the top scorer this week with a 47-point game against the Angels.
The veteran had 11 strikeouts over 7 innings against the Trout-less Halos.
Another notable name here is Corbin Burnes who finally saw a ceiling game again, surprisingly against the tough Dodgers offense.
It was the first time Burnes has given up zero runs in four starts.
Diamondbacks seemed to be the theme in GW40, as Sewald, Nelson, and Ginkel all finished in the top-5.
The cold Arizona offense came alive in their four-game series against Colorado, winning three out of four games by totals of 2,2, and 3.
Just because it’s Colorado doesn’t mean we can’t use relief pitchers, in fact, with the nature of the high scoring games, I’ve found that relievers are needed more often in the late innings.
Julio Rodriguez had a monster finish to game week 40 by going 9 for his last 11 at bats.
This two-game stretch also included 2 stolen bags, 1 homer, and 7 RBIs.
Before the Julio surge I was certain that Christian Walker would be runaway with the top spot with his four-homer series in Colorado.
Walker did the opposite of Julio and finished off the game week by going 0-4 on Thursday.
📋 Roster Movements
In:
Hunter Greene - Coming back from IL, will start Sunday vs. Blue Jays
Carlos Rodon - Expected to return to the Yankees’ rotation on August 22nd
Out:
Ozzie Albies - Placed on the 10-day IL with strained left hamstring
Lars Nootbaar - Day to day after fouling ball off his groin (ouch)
Willson Contreras - Day to day with right hip tightness, has sat two games in a row
Nolan Gorman - Day to day with lower back tightness, has sat two games in a row
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - Day to day with left hip contusion, left Wednesday’s game
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
Four Games:
Tigers, Guardians
Three Games:
Everyone else!
⚾️ Pitching Primer
Yu Darvish vs ARI
Arizona is coming off of a big series in Coors, but this has still been one of the coldest teams since the All Star break, and we know what tends to happen to teams once they leave the mountains.
Darvish has put up decent numbers on the year. He currently sports the 33rd-best xFIP (3.92), and the 26th-best K% (24.7%).
Darvish has been a relatively high-floor option this year, with ceiling games against Texas, Toronto, and Philly over the last couple of months.
Christian Walker just went nuclear in Colorado, but the Dbacks are still 17th in wOBA (.315), 19th in ISO (.164), and 21st in wRC+ (95) over the last month.
The best part about Darvish is his super cheap price tag in Sorare.
Limited Price: ~$4
Tanner Bibee vs DET
I read a crazy stat yesterday that the Guardians are top-five in team-ERA since the beginning of July.
They don’t have many recognizable name in their rotation, particularly the rookies Grant Williams and Tanner Bibee, but these guys have been so steady over the past couple of months.
I feel like Cleveland has always done a great job with their pitching. I remember not long ago their rotation contained Trevor Bauer, Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, etc.
Anyways, the Guardians get Detroit at home this weekend, and we should immediately be looking at Tanner Bibee.
Bibee sports a respectable 4.35 xFIP, 23.5% K-rate, 7.8% walk-rate, and 0.83 HR/9 on the year
The Tigers have the 10th-highest K% (23.8%), 4th-lowest ISO (.142), and 3rd-lowest wOBA (.296).
Limited Price: ~$10
Other Starters Include:
~$106 Spencer Strider vs SFG
~$18 Max Fried vs SFG
~$6 Kyle Bradish at OAK
~$8 Hunter Greene vs TOR
~$15 Framber Valdez vs SEA
~$12 Julio Urias vs MIA
~$9 Brandon Woodruff at TEX
~$10 Pablo Lopez vs PIT
~$22 Gerrit Cole vs BOS
~$20 Tyler Glasnow at LAA
~$17 Max Scherzer vs MIL
📞 Call To The Bullpen
The Tigers and Guardians game from yesterday was postponed, meaning they will each play four games this weekend.
This will immediately make their closers much better plays, but we should also be targeting series’ we think can stay close as well.
~$1 Alex Lange
~$10 Emmanuel Clase
Series’ I think can stay competitive:
BOS/NYY, TOR/CIN, SEA/HOU
Closer Options:
~$3 Kenley Jansen
~$2 Clay Holmes
~$10 Jordan Romano
~$9 Alexis Diaz
~$6 Andres Muñoz
~$9 Ryan Pressly
💰 Stacks
Cubs
The energy around the Cubs right now is electric.
They currently sit 2.5 games out of first in the NL Central, and just saw Christopher Morel walk-off the White Sox last night in dramatic fashion.
Now they get one of the best opposing pitching matchups in the league for another series at Wrigley.
The Royals will roll out Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and Jordan Lyles in GW40.
You could make the case that Lyles is the worst pitcher in the league right now.
His xFIP of 5.34 is dead-last, his 1.92 HR/9 is second-to-last, his 0.2 WAR is dead-last, and his 16.3% K% is the fifth-worst.
Over the last month, the Cubs rank 2nd in ISO (.215), 3rd in wOBA (.363), and 3rd in wRC+ (129).
~$14 Nico Hoerner
~$7 Ian Happ
~$26 Cody Bellinger
~$10 Dansby Swanson
~$10 Christopher Morel
~$3 Seiya Suzuki
White Sox
Speaking of that Christopher Morel walk-off, the other Chicago team was the one to blow the win in the bottom of the ninth.
That being said, we can’t ignore an upcoming series in Colorado versus a bottom-tier pitching rotation.
We just saw the Diamondbacks cold offense come to life in this ballpark and I expect we see some of these White Sox bats do some damage here.
The Rockies will deploy Paul Lambert, Kyle Freeland, and Chris Flexen this week.
Colorado pitching has been well documented in this newsletter. As a team they rank 29th in xFIP (5.01), and 29th in HR/9 (1.47).
Just note that Tim Anderson will serve his five-game suspension during this game week, and thus will not accrue any Sorare points.
Fire up all the bats from the city of Chicago this week.
~$2 Andrew Benintendi
~$4 Eloy Jimenez
~$37 Luis Robert Jr.
~$1 Yoan Moncada
~$4 Andrew Vaughn
Other Stacks to Consider:
Blue Jays, Phillies, Guardians, Orioles
Value Options (Under $20):
Middle Infield:
~$8 Tommy Edman, ~$9 Isaac Paredes, ~$10 Nolan Gorman, ~$17 Adley Rutschman
Corner Infield:
~$8 Bryan Reynolds, ~17 Ryan Mountcastle, ~$15 Kyle Schwarber, ~$11 Jeimer Candelario
Outfield:
~$15 Lars Nootbaar, ~$16 James Outman, ~$3 Seiya Suzuki, ~$4 Andrew Vaughn
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 40.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
All prices references were pulled from the Limited tier.
I release these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards!
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Thanks for reading!