Sorare MLB GW42 Breakdown | Broken Halos
The pod has gained some momentum.
And yes, I am now referring to it as a podcast.
I have the next three guests lined up, and without revealing any names I will give some hints…
The guy who inspired this here newsletter
A Sorare employee 👀
Someone with 63 Super Rares and over 100 Rares
The last episode with Dennis became the second-most watched episode in just two days.
I appreciate the support from all you great people.
Let’s dive into GW42!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
Merrill Kelly took the crown this week with a dominant outing against the Rangers, but the guy I want to talk about here is Cole Ragans.
Ragans was recently moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation, and I mentioned last week that he was the one guy I feared in this otherwise awful Royals rotation.
It was the Athletics who he torched for 11 strikeouts in this one, but he also put up 9 K’s against the Cubs, 8 against the Mets, and 11 against the Red Sox.
Ragans currently sports a 33.3% K-rate and a 2.66 xFIP.
Oakland closer Trevor May was the top option at reliever this week with two saves and one win over the Royals.
Shoutout to Miguel, who placed 14th in Limited All Star with May in the reliever slot.
May made sense this week as the A’s were playing four games against Kansas City, with KC being one of the few teams that Oakland can stay competitive with.
Otherwise we should note that Paul Sewald continues to dominate with his new team, and Cole Ragans can also be played as a reliever.
Marcell Ozuna was the top hitter in GW41 with four homers and seven RBIs in the Braves’ three-game series with the Mets.
Aaron Judge took the three spot and now has the fifth-most home runs (28) in the AL despite missing 54 game this season.
Shea Langeliers squeaked his way in here as well as Oakland made for a solid mini-stack against the Royals.
📋 Roster Movements
In:
Ozzie Albies - Likely to return to Braves lineup on Friday from left hamstring strain
Joe Ryan - Finishing up rehab assignment, could make next start for the Twins
Nolan Gorman - Should return to Cardinals’ lineup Friday from lower back injury
Out:
Shohei Ohtani - Will not pitch again this year after tearing UCL, still available to hit
Mike Trout - Back on the IL after re-injuring fractured hamate bone in left hand
J.D. Martinez - Placed on the 10-day IL with groin tightness
Yordan Alvarez - Day to day after jamming finger in a door at his house
Stone Garrett - Carted off the field after colliding with outfield wall, IL stint likely
Jarren Duran - Placed on the 10-day IL with left great toe sprain
Avisail Garcia - Placed on the IL with left hamstring strain
Matthew Liberatore - Placed on the 15-day IL with lower back tightness
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
All teams play three games!
⚾️ Pitching Primer
Luis Castillo vs KCR
Castillo will carry his dominant season into a matchup at home against Kansas City
Castillo has the 10th-highest K% (27.6%), 16th-lowest xFIP (3.64), and the 10th-lowest BB% (5.8%).
While we’re on the subject, three of the Mariners’ starting pitchers are in the top-ten in walk-rate (Kirby: 2.3%, Gilbert: 4.5%, Castillo: 5.8%).
I’m not sure if the gravity is different over there in Seattle, or maybe the pitching coaches just know what they’re doing.
Either way it’s pretty impressive.
Anyways, Kansas City strikes out at the 14th-highest clip (23.1%), and is bottom-three in wRC+ (86).
Castillo looks like an awesome play, and don’t count out Mr. Gilbert as well.
Limited Price: ~$11
Dylan Cease vs OAK
Cease has coupled his impressive 26.7% K-rate with the 12th-best HR/9 in the league (0.91).
His xFIP is on the wrong side of 4 (4.19), which ranks 39th amongst qualified pitchers.
The good news is that Cease has a matchup against the A’s who don’t posses much of a run-scoring threat.
Oakland is 26th in wRC+ (89), 30th in wOBA (.292), 27th in ISO (.142), and they strikeout at the 5th-highest clip (24.8%).
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cease rack up quite a few punch-outs in this spot.
Limited Price: ~$5
Other Starters Include:
~$15 Max Fried at SFG
~$8 Kyle Bradish vs COL
~$111 Spencer Strider at SFG
~$9 Hunter Greene at ARI
~$13 Framber Valdez at DET
~$9 Hunter Brown at DET
~$18 Gerrit Cole at TBR
~$10 Zack Wheeler vs STL
~$8 Aaron Nola vs STL
~$5 Logan Gilbert vs KCR
~$23 Tyler Glasnow vs NYY
📞 Call To The Bullpen
Sadly there is no advantage to be had this week with all 30 teams playing the maximum number of games.
Unless, like last week, we see a last-minute weather postponement causing a couple teams to play a double header.
Our best bet is to target closers on teams we think can keep their series’ close over the weekend.
Series’ I think can stay close:
CHC/PIT, CLE/TOR, TEX/MIN, CIN/ARI
Closer Options:
~$6 Adbert Alzolay
~$6 David Bednar
~$12 Emmanuel Clase
~$7 Jordan Romano
~$8 Will Smith
~$6 Jhoan Duran
~$7 Alexis Diaz
~$4 Paul Sewald
💰 Stacks
Orioles
The Rockies pitching staff will roll out Kyle Freeland, Chris Flexen, and Ty Blach into Camden Yards to face the Orioles.
Over the last two weeks, Baltimore ranks 10th in ISO (.176), 17th in wOBA (.316), and 13th in wRC+ (100).
We know the struggles with Colorado pitching. Freeland and Blach both have an xFIP north of 5, while Flexen is knocking at the door with a 4.98 mark.
Flexen gives up almost 3 home runs per nine innings (not a typo) and Freeland and Blach both strike out less than 15% of the hitters they face.
Load up the speedy and powerful O’s with confidence this week.
~$20 Adley Rutschman
~$48 Gunnar Henderson
~$13 Anthony Santander
~$13 Ryan Mountcastle
~$12 Cedric Mullins
Astros
Houston travels to Detroit to play three games against Matt Manning, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Alex Faedo.
Rodriguez has a respectable 3.64 xFIP, but Faedo and Manning are sitting at 4.42 and 5.58, respectively.
The return of Yordan Alvarez would make this lineup look much better, but he is still recovering from jamming his finger in a door (relatable).
On the season Houston ranks 7th in wRC+ (106), 14th in ISO (.169), and 10th in wOBA (.324).
~$30 Jose Altuve
~$14 Alex Bregman
~$63 Kyle Tucker
~$56 Yordan Alvarez
~$10 Chas McCormick
Other Stacks Include:
Mariners, Dodgers, White Sox, Braves
Value Options (Under $20):
Middle Infield:
~$10 Ezequiel Tovar, ~$7 Carlos Correa, ~$7 Willy Adames, ~$9 Nolan Gorman
Corner Infield:
~$16 Spencer Torkelson, ~$5 Ke’Bryan Hayes, ~$17 Yandy Diaz, ~$16 Bryan Reynolds
Outfield:
~$17 Jorge Soler, ~$10 Seiya Suzuki, ~$16 Lars Nootbaar, ~$8 Teoscar Hernandez
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 42.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
All prices references were pulled from the Limited tier.
I release these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards!
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Thanks for reading!