Sorare MLB GW43 Breakdown | Down Goes Bautista
I watched “The Big Short” for the first time last night.
And while I didn’t understand many parts of the film, what it made me realize was that schools don’t really teach the important topics.
The flow of money is a huge one, but also I don’t recall ever learning about networking, persuasion, or game theory.
You’re probably thinking, “Why would I need to learn about game theory”?
I’ve read a ton on the subject (Not at school, obviously) but rather in the “Daily Fantasy Sports For Smart People” Series by Jonathan Bales, and various other books by Nassim Taleb.
In fact, Taleb’s “The Black Swan” was written in 2007, the year before the financial crisis, with the book’s premise being about outlier events.
Taleb was one of the few people who predicted the collapse, and even had skin in the game (He has another book titled “Skin In The Game” which I’ve read) and made a bet on the crisis happening, similar to Michael Burry’s bet in the film.
When the financial sector is just a huge game anyways, understanding the rules of the game and devising a plan to win seems like an important thing to do.
The 2008 financial crisis was one of the biggest events of the 21st century, and no one seems to understand what happened.
It’s also not a coincidence that the bitcoin white paper was released in October of that same year.
And I don’t recall learning any of this in a classroom.
Let’s dive into GW43!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
Gerrit Cole continued his stellar season with a 7-inning, 11-strikeout game versus the Rays.
Cole remains the favorite for the AL Cy Young and has been the lone bright spot for the otherwise disappointing Yankees this season.
We should also note that the one-two punch of Nola and Wheeler tied with 43 Sorare points each against the Cardinals.
Both of these guys have put up similar numbers this season and should be considered every week.
Andres Muñoz took the crown in GW42 with two saves at home against the Royals.
Amongst closers, Muñoz has pitched the most innings (14.1) over the last month of play.
With the Mariners playing the way they are, and the recent trade of Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks, Muñoz makes sense as an every-week staple in lineups.
The hitter leaderboard last week was a little wonky with Ramon Laureano and Teoscar Hernandez tying for first with just 66 points each.
Corbin Carroll was the least surprising player here as the rookie totaled 2 steals, 5 walks, and 2 triples this weekend against the Reds.
Carroll once again proved that he doesn’t need only homers to be one of the highest-scoring players on the slate.
📋 Roster Movements
In:
(Crickets)
Out:
Felix Bautista - Placed on the 15-day IL with injury to UCL, Tommy John likely
Jake Cronenworth - Placed on the 10-day IL with right wrist fracture
Yandy Diaz - Day to day after getting hit by pitch on left forearm
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
Four Games:
Braves, Dodgers, Tigers, Padres, Giants, Nationals, Yankees
Three Games:
Brewers, Pirates, Red Sox, Rangers, Angels, White Sox, Mariners, Astros, Orioles, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Cardinals, Twins, Blue Jays, Reds, Marlins, Royals, Athletics, Guardians, Rockies, Mets
Two Games:
Rays
⚾️ Pitching Primer
George Kirby vs OAK
Last week my Dylan Cease vs. Oakland pick backfired in a big way.
He delivered 6 strikeouts over 4 innings, however he also surrendered 5 walks, 9 hits, and 8(!) earned runs.
That being said, I’m going back to picking on Oakland, this time with Kirby, who shouldn’t have the same walk issues that Cease had.
Kirby leads all pitchers in walk-rate (2.3%), while Cease is ranked 5th-worst (10.7%).
Kirby doesn’t have nearly as high of a K-rate (23%), but the A’s strikeout at the 5th-highest clip (24.8%).
Oakland is also 26th in wRC+ (89), 30th in wOBA (.292), 27th in ISO (.142).
Limited Price: ~$12
Gerrit Cole at DET
Part of me really wanted to highlight Hunter Greene against San Fransisco here because of the strikeout potential and the ballpark upgrade.
However Greene has struggled mightily since returning from injury and he has struggled with walks and homers.
The far more safe, albeit chalky, choice is Gerrit Cole against the Tigers.
Cole is coming off one of this best outings of the season against the tough Rays offense, and will now face Detroit who ranks 22nd in K% (24.1%), 26th in ISO (.145), and 28th in wRC+ (86).
Cole ranks 18th in K/9 (9.70), and 17th in xFIP (3.66).
Fire up some Cole this week, just know he might be the most heavily rostered pitcher this week, and his Sorare price never comes cheap.
Limited Price: ~$19
Other Starters Include:
~$5 Dylan Cease at BAL
~$3 Cole Ragans vs PIT
~$8 Clayton Kershaw vs ARI
~$7 Jesus Luzardo vs TBR
~$16 Corbin Burnes at CHC
~$9 Pablo Lopez vs CLE
~$7 Hunter Greene at SFG
~$6 Mitch Keller at KCR
~$12 Blake Snell at STL
~$13 Kevin Gausman vs WSH
📞 Call To The Bullpen
With 7 teams playing four games this week, it makes sense to prioritize the closers on those teams.
The maximum number of games greatly increases the chances to earn relief appearances and save opportunities.
I will list them here in the order that I like them.
Closer Options:
~$10 Raisel Iglesias
~$8 Josh Hader
~$7 Camilo Doval
~$5 Evan Phillips
~$4 Kyle Finnegan
~$1 Clay Holmes
~$2 Alex Lange
💰 Stacks
Braves
The Braves play four games this week and three of them are at Coors Field.
That’s all that really needs to be said here.
Atlanta will face Austin Gomber, Peter Lambert, and Kyle Freeland of the Rockies before facing Julio Urias of the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
I don’t love the matchup against Urias, but I expect the Braves to put up some runs against these Colorado pitchers.
Atlanta is 1st in ISO by .23 (.224), 1st in wOBA by .16 (.358) and 1st in wRC+ by 6 (124).
Atlanta will be highly owned but maybe you can get different by including some players who hit at the bottom of the order.
~$144 Ronald Acuña Jr.
~$71 Matt Olson
~$59 Austin Riley
~$8 Sean Murphy
~$19 Marcell Ozuna
Padres
San Diego will face Adam Wainwright, Zack Thompson, and Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals, followed by Jakob Junis of the Giants.
Thompson has put up decent numbers this year, but Mikolas currently sports a 4.67 xFIP while old-man Wainwright is at a 5.73 mark.
The Padres are in the top half of most of the major offense metrics, ranking 12th in ISO (.171), 17th in wOBA (.319), and 11th in wRC+ (105).
If you want to pivot off of the chalky Braves stack then the Padres look like a nice option.
~$82 Fernando Tatis Jr.
~$47 Juan Soto
~$21 Manny Machado
~$6 Xander Bogaerts
~$11 Ha-Seong Kim
Other Stacks To Consider:
Dodgers, Yankees, Pirates, Blue Jays
Value Options (Under $20):
Middle Infield:
~$11 Isaac Paredes, ~$8 Ezequiel Tovar, ~$7 Daulton Varsho, ~$10 JP Crawford
Corner Infield:
~$15 Teoscar Hernandez, ~$15 Spencer Torkelson, ~$16 Bryan Reynolds, ~$12 Ryan Mountcastle
Outfield:
~$10 Seiya Suzuki, ~$8 Adam Duvall, ~$12 Eddie Rosario, ~$11 Jorge Soler
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 43.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
All prices references were pulled from the Limited tier.
I release these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards!
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Thanks for reading!
Did someone say "Game Theory," and where do I sign up to talk about the topic ad nauseam?
🤣🤣