Sorare MLB GW45 Breakdown | Max Fries LA
I can confirm that Coors Field is an awesome place to watch a ballgame.
I can also confirm that Colorado pitching is just as bad as advertised.
The Rockies put up nine runs on Friday but it was no match for the Blue Jays, who delivered 13 runs at altitude.
I also want to give a shout out to supporter of the Breakdown, Jumpshoot, who took down Rare All Star over the weekend with a four-man Cubs stack!
The Cubs were the top stack last week with four games against the Reds in Cincinnati.
It feels great to get people back into the game of baseball and help them find success.
That’s what it’s all about.
Let’s dive into GW45!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
Max Fried was the only player to crack 40 Sorare points this week with a dominant 10-strikeout performance versus the Dodgers.
Fried has been a stud since his return this year, and now proves that he can have ceiling games even in tough matchups.
Also, Jordan Lyles made his first appearance here despite being statistically the worst qualified starter in the league.
He just happened to be playing Kansas City, who, as of yesterday, have the worst record in the MLB. Something had to give.
Marlins’ closer Tanner Scott tied Pirates’ closer David Bednar for the lead with 37 Sorare points a piece.
There is not much to note here besides the closers here all appear to come from teams with losing records.
The bad teams all seemed to play each other over the weekend, but this also allowed up to have the good teams play each other like in the exciting Braves/Dodgers series.
Perhaps we got a little taste of the upcoming NLCS?
The most notable player here is Nolan Jones, and that is because this biased author watched him hit a go-ahead three-run home run off of Genesis Cabrera live.
It was a brief bright spot for the Rockies, who then surrendered 5 more runs to Toronto in the next half inning.
Anyways, the Cubs proved to be the top stack in GW44, having one extra game and facing poor Reds pitching at a hitter friendly park.
They did not disappoint.
📋 Roster Movements
In
(Crickets)
Out
Jose Altuve - Day to day with bruised right shin, out of lineup Sunday
Graham Ashcraft - Placed on IL with stress reaction in right big toe
Ty France - Day to day with right elbow contusion
Riley Greene - Placed on 10-day IL with right elbow inflammation
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
Four Games:
Mariners, Angels, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Rays, Guardians
Three Games:
Brewers, Dodgers, Pirates, Astros, Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox, White Sox, Orioles, Marlins, Padres, Phillies, Cardinals, Twins, Royals, Blue Jays, Athletics, Yankees, Rockies, Giants, Braves, Reds
Two Games:
Nationals, Mets
⚾️ Pitching Primer
Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta at PIT
Burnes and Peralta head to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates who rank 26th in wRC+ (89), 21st in ISO (.151), and 22nd in wOBA (.307).
Although I think the Pittsburgh core makes a good (and cheap) stack in Sorare when presented with a good matchup, this is not one of those times.
Burnes has been solid all season, ranking 28th in xFIP (3.92) and 24th in K% (24.9%).
I actually thought there was a glitch in the matrix when I looked at Peralta’s stats.
The current NL Pitcher of the Month now ranks third in K% (31.3%), and 11th in xFIP (3.53).
I knew he had good numbers, but his last month of play has boosted his season-long stats up to one of the top arms in the league.
Limited Prices: ~$14 Burnes, ~$14 Peralta
Dylan Cease at KCR
Last time I highlighted Cease here against Oakland he got shelled for 8 earned runs so I am hesitant as I write him up again.
That being said, he is facing Kansas City, who, as previously mentioned, have the worst record in the MLB and just let Jordan Lyles be the third-best pitcher on the slate.
Cease brings the 13th-best strikeout rate to the table (26.5%), but in Blake Snell fashion he also brings a double-digit walk-rate (10.7%).
Kansas City as a team walks at the second-lowest mark in the league (6.6%), and strikes out about league-average (23.2%).
They also struggle to generate runs with a 29th-ranked wRC+ (84)
Cease’s biggest weakness should be suppressed here while this is an average matchup for K’s and an excellent spot for run prevention.
Limited Price: ~$5
Other Starters Include:
~$137 Spencer Strider vs STL
~$24 Max Fried vs STL
~$8 Justin Steele vs SFG
~$7 Clayton Kershaw at MIA
~$17 Gerrit Cole vs DET
~$19 Luis Castillo at TBR
~$17 Tyler Glasnow vs BOS
~$3 Chris Bassitt at OAK
📞 Call To The Bullpen
With 6 teams playing four games in GW45, we can gain a clear edge by targeting the closers on those teams.
Like always, this will maximize the chances for relief appearances and save opportunities.
Closer Options:
~$9 Andres Muñoz
~$2 Carlos Estevez
~$4 Paul Sewald
~$11 Adbert Alzolay
~$4 Pete Fairbanks
~$11 Emmanuel Clase
💰 Stacks
Mariners
The Mariners head to The Great American Smallpark to face a crippled Cincinnati pitching staff.
The will draw Brett Kennedy, Connor Phillips, and Lyon Richardson for the Reds.
I’d be Lyon if a said I knew anything about these three pitchers. 😏
Seattle will then face Zack Littell for one game at Tropicana against the Rays on Thursday.
Seattle’s offense has been great down the stretch, and as a team they rank 6th in wRC+ (109).
I expect we see a few of these guys have big scores this week with the Mariners protecting their new first-place record in the AL West.
~$8 JP Crawford
~$85 Julio Rodriguez
~$5 Eugenio Suarez
~$11 Teoscar Hernandez
~$8 Cal Raleigh
Diamondbacks
Arizona will face Peter Lambert, Kyle Freeland, and Chris Flexen of the Rockies, followed by one game against Javier Assad of the Cubs.
I know from personal experience that Chris Flexen likes to give up homers. I saw him surrender long balls to Brandon Belt, Ernie Clement, and Danny Jansen on Friday.
The Diamondbacks rank about league-average across the major offensive metrics, but they are still in the playoff hunt with a 70-67 record.
This team can get there with a solid mixture of speed and power and makes for a nice stack this week.
~$8 Ketel Marte
~$6 Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
~$5 Tommy Pham
~$10 Christian Walker
~$62 Corbin Carroll
Other Stacks To Consider:
Cubs, Rays, White Sox, Blue Jays
Value Options (Under $20):
Middle Infield:
~$11 Isaac Paredes, ~$8 Ezequiel Tovar, ~$5 Daulton Varsho, ~$10 JP Crawford
Corner Infield:
~$15 Teoscar Hernandez, ~$15 Spencer Torkelson, ~$16 Bryan Reynolds, ~$12 Ryan Mountcastle
Outfield:
~$10 Seiya Suzuki, ~$8 Adam Duvall, ~$12 Eddie Rosario, ~$11 Jorge Soler
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 45.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
All prices references were pulled from the Limited tier.
I release these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards!
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Thanks for reading!