Sorare MLB GW49 Breakdown | Marlins Magic
It’s always important to figure out people’s incentives.
Whether that be in life or in the MLB this time of the year.
The reason I say that is because now, in mid-September, several of the top offenses in the league have clinched their division and are no longer incentivized to win.
A good example is the Braves, who recently clinched the NL East, and subsequently got smashed by the mediocre Marlins offense by a ratio of 13-36.
The Braves did not sit their entire offense, but they did rest Ronald Acuña for most of this series as they didn’t want the MVP-favorite to aggravate his calf on the turf at LoanDepot Park.
The only other team who has clinched their division so far is the Dodgers, who, spoiler-alert, are one of the top stacks this week.
I’m not saying you can’t play these guys for fear of disincentive, but just know there is at least some added risk with this team locked into their playoff seed.
Keep these things in mind because it’s not always a lack of motivation from the teams that have no playoff hopes, but also a lack of motivation from the teams that can coast until October.
Let’s dive into GW49!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
Newly-acquired Lucas Giolito led the way for the Guardians in GW48 with a 12-strikeout game against the Rangers.
It was Giolito’s biggest game of the season, and he could have another great start this week as he draws the Royals.
Grayson Rodriguez continued his dominant rookie year with an 8-inning shutout of the tough Rays offense on Saturday.
After a wonky leaderboard last week, the top five relievers were all closers in GW48.
Taylor Clarke probably surprised some people on here with Kansas City playing a three-game series against Houston.
KC won two out of the three, even outscoring the Astros 10-8 on Saturday.
Maybe a more surprising player is Tanner Scott of the Marlins, who earned one save and one win against the Braves.
More on the Marlins in just one second…
Miami made for a great stack this week, even though they had a terrible spot on paper.
The Marlins faced Bryce Elder, Charlie Morton, and Jared Shuster of the Braves and shockingly brought in a total of 36 runs.
One explanation I can think of is a lack of incentive for the Braves to play hard with them having already clinched the division.
They even sat Ronald Acuña for most of this series as they worried about the turf at LoanDepot Park aggravating his calf.
📋 Roster Movements
In:
Jorge Soler - Returned from 10-day IL for Sunday’s game
Josh Jung - Will return to Rangers lineup for Monday’s series vs. Boston
Kenley Jansen - Returning from Covid, should be available Wednesday
Christian Yelich - Returned Friday but absent over the weekend, still not 100%
Out:
Shohei Ohtani - Placed on the IL with right oblique strain, out for the season
Triston Casas - Placed on 10-day IL with right shoulder inflammation
Tyler O’Neil - Placed on the 10-day IL with right foot sprain
Kyle Freeland - Placed on IL with oblique pain, out for the season
Salvador Perez - Day to day after being hit in the facemask by foul ball
Tanner Bibee - Day to day with right hip tightness
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
Four Games:
Braves, Tigers, Orioles, Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Athletics, Guardians, Mets
Three Games:
Pirates, Astros, White Sox, Mariners, Reds, Red Sox, Rangers, Angels, Royals, Padres, Marlins, Giants, Twins, Cubs, Rockies, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays
Two Games:
Diamondbacks
⚾️ Pitching Primer
Blake Snell vs COL
With the season coming to an end, Blake Snell is currently the favorite to win the NL Cy Young at -220 per DraftKings Sportsbook.
He is 2nd in K% (31.4%), 4th in HR/9 (0.81), and 14th in xFIP (3.65).
The icing on the cake is that he draws arguably the best matchup in the majors.
Colorado K’s at the third-highest rate (25.3%) and is ranked 21st in ISO (.152), 21st in wOBA (.308), and dead-last in wRC+ (77).
The Rockies also walk at the 5th-lowest rate, which bodes well for Snell’s league-leading 13.4% walk-rate.
It’s not out of the cards to see Snell have 12 or more K’s in this one.
Limited Price: ~$12
Hunter Greene vs. MIN
I’ll take on a little more risk with this pick and role with Hunter Greene at home against the Twins.
The risk is that this ballpark is incredible for hitting, Greene has a walk-rate north of 10%, and his HR/9 is a bit scary at 1.39.
The upside is that Greene has a 30.1% K-rate, which ranks 18th using a 10 IP filter on Fangraphs, and the Twins strikeout at the highest rate in the league (26.9%).
Minnesota does have some power (.183 ISO), but if Greene can keep the ball in the yard we can see a massive strikeout game in this one.
Limited Price: ~$7
Other Starters Include:
~$14 Zac Gallen vs. SFG
~$68 Spencer Strider vs. PHI
~$14 Luis Castillo at OAK
~$14 Justin Steele vs. PIT
~$4 Lucas Giolito at KCR
~$13 Freddy Peralta at STL
~$16 Corbin Burnes at STL
~$7 Joe Ryan at CIN
~$14 Gerrit Cole vs TOR
~$10 Kevin Gausman at NYY
~$5 Mason Miller vs DET
📞 Call To The Bullpen
With 11 teams playing four games this week, we can safely target the closers on these teams to help maximize relief appearances and save opportunities.
I will list my favorites in the order that I like them the most, factoring in matchup and the competitive nature of the series.
Closer Options:
~$10 Devin Williams
~$11 Raisel Iglesias
~$13 Emmanuel Clase
~$6 Yennier Cano
~$5 Craig Kimbrel
~$1 Alex Lange
~$1 Adam Ottavino
💰 Stacks
Guardians
Cleveland will face Brady Singer, Alec Marsh, and Zack Greinke of the Royals, before facing Jack Flaherty of the Orioles on Thursday.
The Guardians don’t have a super exciting offense by any means (23rd in wRC+ at 91) but amongst the four-gamers, Atlanta is drawing a brutal matchup against Philly pitching, Philly is drawing a brutal matchup versus Atlanta pitching, and Baltimore gets Houston.
That leaves Cleveland, who has the best opposing pitching matchup on the board, Milwaukee who draws some dusty St. Louis pitching, and the team below.
I love the idea of a Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor three-man stack that can be paired with a couple other power bats.
The pitchers going against Cleveland this week have xFIP’s of 4.28, 4.98, 4.46, and 4.07.
~$7 Steven Kwan
~$26 Jose Ramirez
~$13 Josh Naylor
~$2 Ramon Laureano
~$4 Andres Gimenez
Dodgers
LA will face Eduardo Rodriguez, Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal of the Tigers, followed by Keaton Winn of the Giants.
I know his last name is Winn, but I think Keaton will get the loss on Thursday against one of the top offenses in the league.
People may not think much of Detroit pitching, but I will say these guys they’re rolling out this week are actually decent.
Rodriguez and Olson have similar stats on the season, hovering around the 24% strikeout range and an xFIP of around 4.
Skubal missed a good chunk of the season but he is actually a #good pitcher. He currently sports a 30.7% K-rate, 4.7% walk-rate, and a 2.77 xFIP.
He’s not a qualified pitcher, but his xFIP is higher than the likes of Tyler Glasnow and Spencer Strider.
So I just hyped up Detroit pitching, why do I like the Dodgers?
Because they rank 2nd in ISO (.200), 2nd in wOBA (.343), and 2nd in wRC+ (117).
~$110 Mookie Betts
~$66 Freddie Freeman
~$9 Will Smith
~$17 Max Muncy
~$6 J.D. Martinez
Other Stacks To Consider:
Brewers, Mariners, Twins, Rangers
Value Options (Under $20):
Middle Infield:
~$7 Jorge Polanco, ~$10 Willy Adames, ~$4 Andres Gimenez, ~$7 Ezequiel Tovar
Corner Infield:
~$11 Luis Arraez, ~$6 Jorge Soler, ~$17 Max Muncy, ~$9 Bryan Reynolds
Outfield:
~$14 Seiya Suzuki, ~$6 Jorge Soler, ~$7 Steven Kwan, ~$7 Esteury Ruiz
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 49.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
All prices references were pulled from the Limited tier.
I release these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards!
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Thanks for reading!