Sorare MLB GW51 Breakdown | Lone Star Surge
There is officially one week left of the season.
The Braves, Dodgers, and Twins are the only teams to have clinched their division so far, leaving the AL East, AL West, and NL Central still up for grabs.
In what was the closest race just last week, the AL West now belongs to the Texas Rangers after their pivotal sweep of Seattle, who now lies 3 games back out of first.
Houston got swept by the team with the second-worst record this year to move to 2.5 games back.
Now it will be critical for the Astros to turn things around with a series against the Mariners on tap for GW51.
155 games could come down to this week’s performance for one or two of these teams.
Let’s dive in to GW51!
⏪ Game Week Rewind
Dylan Cease and Christopher Sanchez tied for the top spot in GW50 with 40 Sorare points a piece.
Cease recorded 11 punch outs against Boston, who recently waived the white flag on the season.
Sanchez struck out 10 Mets over 7 innings, and continues to be listed as a RP in Sorare.
Overall there weren’t many surprises to be had this week at the position.
James McArthur is back in our lives this week, just one week removed from me getting him mixed up with popular English singer, James Arthur.
McArthur’s services were needed in two games over the weekend as Kansas City shockingly swept the Astros.
But seriously, Houston got swept by the 54-102 Royals while the Rangers swept a pivotal series against the Mariners.
The AL West is now Texas’ division to lose.
I don’t think anyone expected TJ Friedl to take the top spot this week, but the Cincinnati outfielder recorded two hits with one homer in each game of the Reds’ series versus Pittsburgh.
Aaron Judge returned to his 2022 form a bit too late with a three-homer game against Arizona on Friday.
Speaking of Aaron Judge in 2022, it was Christian Yelich who had the 62 next to his name this week with a 5 RBI game on Friday
We’re talking Sorare points instead of home runs, however.
📋 Roster Movements
In:
Matt McLain - Should return from right oblique strain Tuesday
Frankie Montas - Might get activated for Yankees’ final road trip of season
Out:
Max Fried - Placed on 15-day IL with left index finger blister, should return for NLDS
Royce Lewis - Placed on 10-day IL with left hamstring strain
Nolan Arenado - Placed on 10-day IL with low back spasms, out for the season
Salvador Perez - Out for the season with left SI joint inflammation
Randy Arozarena - Day to day with right quad tightness, out Saturday and Sunday
🔎 Multi Game Monitor
Four Games:
Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers, Rockies, Diamondbacks
Three Games:
Pirates, Astros, Red Sox, Angels, Braves, White Sox, Orioles, Royals, Padres, Phillies, Brewers, Giants, Cubs, Blue Jays, Marlins, Yankees, Athletics, Mets, Tigers, Twins, Cardinals
Two Games:
Reds, Nationals, Rays, Guardians
⚾️ Pitching Primer
Tarik Skubal vs KCR
I’ll start off by saying that Tarik Skubal is an awesome name.
I think he needs to develop his own pitch and call it the Skubal. That would be pretty cool.
Anyways, Skubal has been awesome, to say the least, since returning from the IL.
Over his last three starts he has pitched 19 innings, struck out 28 batters, and surrendered just 1 run.
Using the 20 IP filter on Fangraphs, Skubal ranks 5th in K% (31.8%), 10th in HR/9 (0.47) and 3rd in xFIP (2.70).
I will say, he’s had some soft matchups over his last three starts in the White Sox, Angels, and the A’s, but he is about to get maybe the softest matchup of all in the Royals.
Kansas City really struggles to generate runs, ranking 28th in wRC+ (86), and Skubal’s elite xFIP should hold the Royals at bay even further.
Limited Price: ~$8
Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes at STL
I’ve been recommending Milwaukee pitchers like a madman lately, but the Brew Crew draws a very winnable series here again against the last-place St. Louis squad.
Most of the Cardinals’ woes this season have come from a miserable pitching staff, but considering the talent they had on offense all season, it is disappointing to see them fall below .500 for the first time in 16 years.
The Cards rank 13th in wRC+ (104), 15th in ISO (.168), and 13th in wOBA (.323) on the year.
Woodruff and Burnes remain elite options at SP, and look like awesome postseason stashes to have in your Sorare gallery.
Limited Prices: ~$16 Woodruff, ~$14 Burnes
Other Starters Include:
~$10 Pablo Lopez vs OAK
~$14 Zac Gallen at CWS
~$14 Framber Valdez at SEA
~$3 Cole Ragans at DET
~$5 Jesus Luzardo at NYM
~$13 Gerrit Cole at TOR
~$6 Aaron Nola vs PIT
~$11 Kevin Gausman vs NYY
📞 Call To The Bullpen
With four teams playing four games this week, it makes sense to focus exclusively on these teams.
Of course you can always mix in your studs if you don’t have any of these guys, but just know that the four-gamers will have a 25% better chance at earning an appearance.
Closer Options:
~$8 Andres Muñoz
~$5 Evan Phillips
~$7 Will Smith
~$1 Justin Lawrence
~$15 Devin Williams
~$5 Camilo Doval
~$5 Jhoan Duran
~$7 Josh Hader
💰 Stacks
Dodgers
The Dodgers are lightyears ahead of the other teams on this slate.
Not only do they get four games, but they get four games against arguably the worst pitching staff in the best ballpark for offensive production.
LA will face Chase Anderson, Ryan Feltner, Noah Davis and Chris Flexen at Coors this week.
Incredibly, all four of these guys have an xFIP over 5. So basically they all give up, on average, 5 or more runs per 9 innings.
The Dodgers have already clinched the NL West, but this team ranks 2nd in ISO (.200), 2nd in wOBA (.341), and 2nd in wRC+ (116) on the year.
Roster Dodgers on all your optimal teams this week and go from there.
~$94 Mookie Betts
~$64 Freddie Freeman
~$19 Max Muncy
~$12 J.D. Martinez
~$17 James Outman
Rangers
I had to make a judgment call on whether to pick one of the other four-gamers, or come down to my favorite three-gamer.
I came close to picking the Brewers, as they have been incredibly hot lately and draw a great series against St. Louis pitching.
Ultimately, however, I’m going to roll with Texas here as they will get one additional game after a beatable Angels series, even though the one game is against Logan Gilbert.
Texas is also now leading the AL West by 1.5 games after winning four straight, so they should be highly incentivized to win these remaining games.
They will face Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, and Griffin Canning of the Angels before facing the aforementioned Gilbert on Thursday.
Texas trails just Atlanta and the Dodgers in the major offense metrics, ranking 3rd in ISO (.189), 3rd in wOBA (.341), and 4th in wRC+ (115).
~$23 Marcus Semien
~$46 Corey Seager
~$6 Nate Lowe
~$18 Adolis Garcia
~$24 Josh Jung
Other Stacks To Consider:
Rockies, Brewers, Twins, Diamondbacks
Value Options (Under $20):
Middle Infield:
~$7 Jorge Polanco, ~$10 Willy Adames, ~$4 Andres Gimenez, ~$7 Ezequiel Tovar
Corner Infield:
~$11 Luis Arraez, ~$6 Jorge Soler, ~$19 Max Muncy, ~$9 Bryan Reynolds
Outfield:
~$8 Seiya Suzuki, ~$15 Marcell Ozuna, ~$7 Steven Kwan, ~$7 Esteury Ruiz
There you have it, the Sorare MLB Slate Breakdown for Game Week 51.
All statistics referenced in this newsletter were pulled from Fangraphs.
All prices references were pulled from the Limited tier.
I release these every Monday and Friday prior to lineup lock to help you all with preparing for the slate and setting your teams.
I hope to see everyone at the top of the leaderboards!
Also, follow me on Twitter @Hunter_Himself!
Thanks for reading!